Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
